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117 insights found

Iggo's insight

15 August 2019

Doesn't Feel Good

Bond yields have plunged this summer. The cyclical slowdown and a wall of political worries has created a surge in demand for safe assets. Investors are trying to figure out what it all means.

Iggo's insight

19 July 2019

Holidays in the sun

President Trump appears to want much lower rates and a weaker dollar. Those views are political. If we were to get them, then US inflation risk premiums could rise.

Iggo's insight

12 July 2019

Yield not equal to return

Bonds have sold off a bit this week, but I believe that the bull market remains in place. Global monetary policy is about to be eased yet there are reasons to be relatively relaxed about the near-ter ...

Iggo's insight

05 July 2019

Here Comes the Summer

Bond returns are being driven by expectations of monetary easing and an unerring search for yield. The result is yields that are increasingly falling below policy interest rates. This may only revers ...

Iggo's insight

21 June 2019

Lower rates, no recession

Navigating through all the noise out there, it seems the most sensible expectation that investors should have is described by “lower rates but no recession”. Central banks were more dovish again this ...

Iggo's insight

07 June 2019

Long, but not wrong

Twitter output dips, markets stabilise. Or was it the central banks? And at the same time more and more of the bond market is negatively yielding. The long-end of the government bond market still has ...

Iggo's insight

31 May 2019

How low can you go?

The environment has become bond bullish and yields are collapsing. There is a growing anticipation that the Federal Reserve will need to ease policy in the coming weeks and months.

Iggo's insight

17 May 2019

The Art… or chance of a Deal

The outlook for economic growth implied by global bonds continues to worsen as risk-free yields continue to fall.

Iggo's insight

10 May 2019

Four out of four

The global economy has been in a long expansion. But there have been plenty of mini-cycles, which impact investment returns.